Blokada \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan \u00dcDM-ni 15 d\u0259f\u0259 nec\u0259 art\u0131racaq?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n ba\u015f naziri Nikol Pa\u015finyan inqilab d\u00f6n\u0259mind\u0259 erm\u0259ni xalq\u0131na verdiyi populist v\u0259dl\u0259rin yerin\u0259 yetirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7abalama\u011fa ba\u015flay\u0131b. Haz\u0131rk\u0131 durumda Vovan\u0131n o\u011flu bataql\u0131qda bo\u011fulan v\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7abalayan adam\u0131 xat\u0131rlay\u0131r. N\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r \u00e7ox \u00e7abalayacaqsa, bir o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 tez bataca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259bii qanunauy\u011funluqdur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, Pa\u015finyan \u00f6t\u0259n ay \u201cErm\u0259nistan 2050 \u2013 \u0130nki\u015faf Strategiyas\u0131\u201d adl\u0131 s\u0259rs\u0259m bir proqram a\u00e7\u0131qlay\u0131b ki, bu proqram\u0131n da realla\u015fmas\u0131 imkans\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u00fcdudunda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. \u0130ndi d\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan \u0259hli Pa\u015finyan\u0131n bu s\u0259rs\u0259m proqram\u0131n\u0131 q\u0131z\u011f\u0131n m\u00fczakir\u0259 etm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flay\u0131b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u0259s n\u0259 var Pa\u015finyan\u0131n m\u00f6c\u00fcz\u0259vi iqtisadi proqram\u0131nda?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130lk m\u0259qamda \u0259n \u00e7ox diqq\u0259t \u00e7\u0259k\u0259n m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 2050-ci ild\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n \u00dcmum Daxili M\u0259hsulunun (\u00dcDM) 15 d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 strategiyas\u0131d\u0131r. S\u0259hv oxumad\u0131n\u0131z. M\u0259hz 15 d\u0259f\u0259.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maraql\u0131d\u0131r ki, Pa\u015finyan demaqoqcas\u0131na bu h\u0259d\u0259fini erm\u0259ni xalq\u0131n\u0131n birba\u015fa \u00e7iynin\u0259 y\u00fckl\u0259yib v\u0259 bu milli m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 olaraq, ortaya qoyulub. Y\u0259ni erm\u0259nil\u0259r \u201cp\u0259p\u0259 yey\u0259nd\u0259n m\u0259m\u0259 dey\u0259n\u0259\u201d q\u0259d\u0259r, ham\u0131s\u0131 Pa\u015finyan\u0131n populizminin realla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir n\u0259f\u0259r kimi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u0259c bu nec\u0259 olacaq? Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n \u00dcDM-i 30 il m\u00fcdd\u0259tind\u0259 15 d\u0259f\u0259 nec\u0259 artacaq?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq ki, torpaqlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 i\u015f\u011fal etdiyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Erm\u0259nistan 80 faiz iqtisadi blokada da ya\u015famaqda davam edir, onda Pa\u015finyan\u0131n populizminin onun ba\u015f\u0131ndan b\u00f6y\u00fck q\u0259l\u0259t oldu\u011fu \u00f6z-\u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 ortaya \u00e7\u0131x\u0131r. Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n haz\u0131rda ancaq \u0130ranla iqtisadi s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259ri a\u00e7\u0131qd\u0131r v\u0259 \u0130ran\u0131n da m\u00f6vcud v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti g\u00f6z qaba\u011f\u0131ndad\u0131r. AB\u015e-\u0131n sanksiyalar\u0131 qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6k\u0259n \u0130ran he\u00e7 \u00f6z hay\u0131na bel\u0259 qala bilmir. Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n \u0259sas havadar\u0131 Rusiya is\u0259 bu \u00f6lk\u0259 il\u0259 ancaq hava n\u0259qliyyat\u0131na malikdir. Pa\u015finyan\u0131n s\u0259rs\u0259m strategiyas\u0131ndan bel\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, o, daha \u00e7ox populizm\u0259 v\u0259 daha \u00e7ox demaqoqiyaya \u0259saslanmaqla, v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti idar\u0259 etm\u0259k ist\u0259yir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amma hara q\u0259d\u0259r? Bu sual\u0131n cavab\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fc bilirmi? Sabah inqilab qap\u0131ya bir daha dir\u0259n\u0259nd\u0259 Pa\u015finyan\u0131n bu populizmi v\u0259 demaqoqiyas\u0131 onu hara aparacaq? Edam k\u00f6t\u00fcy\u00fcn\u0259mi? B\u0259s Pa\u015finyan\u0131n populizmi v\u0259 demaqoqiyas\u0131 beyn\u0259lxalq ara\u015fd\u0131rma\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259 nec\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr? Beyn\u0259lxalq v\u0259 yerli ekspertl\u0259rin fikrinc\u0259, bu, birm\u0259nal\u0131 \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 olduqca \u015fi\u015firdilmi\u015f v\u0259 he\u00e7 bir perspektivi olmayan h\u0259d\u0259fdir. Beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n verdiyi proqnozlara \u0259saslanmayan inki\u015faf konsepsiyas\u0131 q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli d\u00f6vr\u0259 h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259nmi\u015f populist add\u0131m hesab edilir. Bel\u0259 ki, s\u0259n\u0259dd\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259ril\u0259n h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259rl\u0259 BVF-nin proqnozlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ciddi f\u0259rql\u0259r var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Strateji s\u0259n\u0259dd\u0259 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 \u00dcDM-nin \u00fcmumi h\u0259cminin 22 milyard dollar, adamba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u0259n g\u0259lirin is\u0259 t\u0259qrib\u0259n 6,6 min dollar olaca\u011f\u0131 qeyd edils\u0259 d\u0259, BVF-nin proqnozlar\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n, \u00dcDM-nin h\u0259cmi 17 milyard dollar, adamba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u0259n miqdar\u0131 is\u0259 5,7 min dollar t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259k. \u0130qtisadiyyat\u0131n inki\u015faf\u0131nda dig\u0259r h\u0259lledici indikator hesab edil\u0259n ixrac h\u0259cminin d\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi sual alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u00fcnki BVF-nin proqnozlar\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n, bu g\u00fcn\u0259d\u0259k ticar\u0259t \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131nda idxal\u0131n ixracdan \u00fcst\u00fcn olmas\u0131 tendensiyas\u0131 h\u0259l\u0259 uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t bu tempd\u0259 davam ed\u0259c\u0259k. Bu proses \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n valyutan\u0131n \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131, sosial-iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259tin inki\u015faf\u0131n\u0131 \u0259ng\u0259ll\u0259y\u0259n ba\u015fl\u0131ca faktordur. Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, strateji s\u0259n\u0259dd\u0259 t\u0259bii resurlardan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 istiqam\u0259tind\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u0259si g\u0259r\u0259k\u0259n i\u015fl\u0259r qeyd olunsa da, bunun reall\u0131\u011fa \u00e7evrilm\u0259si m\u00fcmk\u00fcns\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u00fcnki 2018-ci ild\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n ixrac strukturunun \u00f6z\u0259yini da\u011f-m\u0259d\u0259n s\u0259nayesinin xam v\u0259 yar\u0131m-fabrikat mallar\u0131 (23 %), t\u0259bii da\u015f-qa\u015f v\u0259 dig\u0259r metallar (12,8 %), t\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259mulatlar\u0131 (11,2 %) v\u0259 i\u00e7kil\u0259r (9,63 %) t\u0259\u015fkil edib ki, bu da \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n primitiv iqtisadi model\u0259 sahib oldu\u011funu t\u0259sdiq edir. Bu tendensiya uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259tdir ki, davam edir v\u0259 2016-2018-ci ill\u0259r \u0259rzind\u0259 d\u0259 qeyd edil\u0259n m\u0259hsullar\u0131n \u00fcmumi ixracda pay\u0131 50 %-dan \u00e7ox olub.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erm\u0259nistan h\u00f6kum\u0259tinin a\u00e7\u0131qlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259r i\u00e7\u0259risind\u0259 turizm sektorunun inki\u015faf\u0131na diqq\u0259t ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 da qeyd edilib. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 bir s\u0131ra idman yar\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ke\u00e7irilm\u0259si v\u0259 turizm sektoruna investisiya yat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 2050-ci ild\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 15 milyon turistin g\u0259lm\u0259si h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259nm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Lakin Erm\u0259nstan\u0131n \u0130qtisadiyyat v\u0259 Qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259l\u0259r Ara\u015fd\u0131rma M\u0259rk\u0259zinin t\u0259hlilin\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, xarici turist olaraq \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 s\u0259f\u0259r ed\u0259n qonaqlar\u0131n 62 %-i d\u00fcnyan\u0131n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 ya\u015fayan etnik erm\u0259nil\u0259rdir. Bu tendensiyan\u0131n davaml\u0131l\u0131q ehtimal\u0131 v\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259nin C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionunda qon\u015fular\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n c\u0259lbediciliyinin xeyli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131, veril\u0259n v\u0259dl\u0259rin realla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcns\u00fcz edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
BVF-nin ara\u015fd\u0131rma m\u0259rk\u0259zinin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesabata \u0259sas\u0259n dey\u0259 bil\u0259rik ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t dig\u0259r m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 oldu\u011fu kimi, turizm sektorunda da \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k proqnoza k\u00f6kl\u0259n\u0259r\u0259k, real v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti anlamaq ist\u0259mir. Pa\u015finyan iqtidar\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259nin d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcy\u00fc ac\u0131nacaql\u0131 durumun baiskar\u0131n\u0131n ke\u00e7mi\u015f r\u0259hb\u0259rlik oldu\u011funu des\u0259 d\u0259, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n yerl\u0259\u015fdiyi co\u011frafi m\u00f6vqe v\u0259 apard\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015f\u011fal\u00e7\u0131 xarici siyas\u0259t \u00f6lk\u0259nin sosial-iqtisadi h\u0259yat\u0131na m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir etm\u0259kd\u0259dir v\u0259 bug\u00fcn\u0259d\u0259k he\u00e7 bir ciddi nailiyy\u0259t \u0259ld\u0259 edilm\u0259m\u0259sinin \u0259sl s\u0259b\u0259bi budur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Y\u0259ni Pa\u015finyan\u0131n s\u0259rs\u0259m strategiyas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0259sas\u0131 populizm v\u0259 demaqoqiya \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 formala\u015f\u0131b ki, bu da n\u0259 ba\u015f nazirin , n\u0259 d\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan \u0259halisinin g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yax\u015f\u0131 he\u00e7 n\u0259 v\u0259d etmir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lap el\u0259 Pa\u015finyan b\u00fct\u00fcn Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 bir n\u0259f\u0259r kimi s\u0259f\u0259rb\u0259r ed\u0259 bils\u0259 bel\u0259, onun h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259ri \u00fcf\u00fcq\u0259 \u00e7atmaq v\u0259 \u00fcf\u00fcq\u00fc \u00f6tm\u0259k kimi imkans\u0131z bir f\u0259ls\u0259f\u0259y\u0259 dayan\u0131b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Qeyd edim ki, Pa\u015finyan\u0131n bu \u201c\u00fcf\u00fcq\u00fc f\u0259th etm\u0259k\u201d x\u0259yal\u0131 Erm\u0259nistanda da utopiya kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilir. Erm\u0259ni K\u0130V-l\u0259rind\u0259 ged\u0259n m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, Pa\u015finyana olan inam v\u0259 etimad art\u0131q s\u0131f\u0131r n\u00f6qt\u0259sin\u0259 dayan\u0131b. Bu, Rusiyan\u0131n apar\u0131c\u0131 media qurumlar\u0131ndan olan \u201cKommersant\u201d q\u0259zetinin geni\u015f analizind\u0259 d\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131q qeyd olunur. H\u0259min m\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, Pa\u015finyan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u201c\u0259c\u0259l z\u0259ngi\u201dnin \u00e7al\u0131nmas\u0131 sad\u0259c\u0259, zaman m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sidir v\u0259 Erm\u0259nistana m\u00f6c\u00fcz\u0259 v\u0259d ed\u0259n inqilab\u00e7\u0131 ba\u015f nazirin \u0259lind\u0259ki \u201csehirli \u00e7ubu\u011f\u201dun da ancaq populist v\u0259dl\u0259r\u0259 yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131 erm\u0259nil\u0259r\u0259 art\u0131q ayd\u0131nd\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130ndi Erm\u0259nistan yeni bir se\u00e7im qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ya xalq yeni inqilab edib Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 daha b\u00f6y\u00fck bataql\u0131\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u0259m\u0259lidir, ya da Pa\u015finyan\u0131n \u201cyalanlar\u0131\u201d il\u0259 qarn\u0131n\u0131 doyurma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amma bir yol daha var. Erm\u0259nil\u0259r g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n geosiyasi v\u0259 geoiqtisadi \u00f6n\u0259mini q\u0259bul etm\u0259li v\u0259 i\u015f\u011fal etdikl\u0259ri torpaqlar\u0131 geri qaytararaq, Az\u0259rbaycanla normal qon\u015fuluq siyas\u0259tin\u0259 qay\u0131tmal\u0131d\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ancaq bu se\u00e7im Pa\u015finyan\u0131n deyil, h\u0259qiq\u0259tl\u0259rin g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 dik baxma\u011f\u0131 bacar\u0131b utopiyalardan imtina etm\u0259yi ba\u015faran Erm\u0259nistan xalq\u0131n\u0131n olmal\u0131d\u0131r\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Az\u0259r QARAMANLI
YEN\u0130CAG.AZ<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Blokada \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan \u00dcDM-ni 15 d\u0259f\u0259 nec\u0259 art\u0131racaq? Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n ba\u015f naziri Nikol Pa\u015finyan inqilab d\u00f6n\u0259mind\u0259…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sq"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu-300x200.png",300,200,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"large":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"covernews-slider-full":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"covernews-slider-center":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"covernews-featured":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",640,426,false],"covernews-medium":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu-640x380.png",540,321,true],"covernews-medium-square":["https:\/\/veteran.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/kihygtyu.png",376,250,false]},"author_info":{"display_name":"Veteran.az","author_link":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/?author=3"},"category_info":"Silahl\u0131 Q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r<\/a>","tag_info":"Silahl\u0131 Q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1291"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1293,"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1291\/revisions\/1293"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veteran.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}